The odds against William Lane Craig ever being born are so astronomically high, that it cannot possibly ever have happened. There are around 300,000,000 sperm in every ejaculation – the odds that the particular sperm that resulted in Bill one the race are 1 in 300 million, but it doesn’t stop there, what are the odds that his parents would have met each other (and that both his grand father’s sperm would have resulted in his mother and father, again that’s 1 in 300 million)? And their parents before that, and so on all the way back to the dawn of life on this planet. The existence of William Lane Craig requires so many vastly improbable things to occur that the odds against it are astronomical, therefore we can conclude that William Lane Craig cannot ever have come into existence.
This is of course all nonsense. Bill does exist, and you’re quite right not to be impressed with my argument against his existence. The odds of his existence aren’t astronomical, they are precisely 1 to 1. You can construct a silly probability argument like that against lots of things that did actually happen like a particular stone being in a particular place in your driveway, or something equally stupid, but the truth is they all have a probability of precisely 1 in 1. William Lane Craig does the exact same thing when he makes the fine tuning argument. The odds that constants of the universe are such that they permit intelligent life are precisely 1 in 1, they are not astronomically small as Craig would have you believe. When we have a sample size of only one universe, this probability could not be anything other than 1 in 1. We do not even know whether the constants can be altered – without more than one universe to compare this is a completely unfounded assumption.
Probabilities are meaningless when assigned to events that already happened, they can only be used to predict the likelihood of future events. Craig is either completely ignorant of probability or, he is deliberately dishonest with it, in order to deceive people. He is simply using a trick, but as I demonstrated I can use the same trick to make his existence seem astronomically unlikely.